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Radiation Protection Dosimetry Advance Access published online on August 8, 2008
Radiation Protection Dosimetry, doi:10.1093/rpd/ncn181
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© The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved
The online version of this article has been published under an open access model. Users are entitled to use, reproduce, disseminate, or display the open access version of this article for non-commercial purposes provided that: the original authorship is properly and fully attributed; the Journal and Oxford University Press are attributed as the original place of publication with the correct citation details given; if an article is subsequently reproduced or disseminated not in its entirety but only in part or as a derivative work this must be clearly indicated. For commercial re-use, please contact journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

UNCERTAINTIES IN INTERNAL DOSES CALCULATED FOR MAYAK WORKERS—A STUDY OF 63 CASES

G. Miller1,*, R. Guilmette1, L. Bertelli1, T. Waters1, S. A. Romanov2 and Y. V. Zaytseva2

1 Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
2 Southern Urals Biophysics Institute, Ozersk, Russia

* Corresponding author: guthrie{at}lanl.gov

Received March 4, 2008, amended June 2, 2008, accepted June 10, 2008

This study makes use of 63 cases of Mayak workers exposed to Pu-239 with autopsy data and some late-time urine bioassay data. In addition, air-concentration data—used to construct monthly average values—are available for each case, which provide the time dependence and potential magnitudes of normal inhalation intakes for each case. The purpose of the study is to develop and test Bayesian methods of dose calculation for the Mayak workers. The first part of the study was to quantitatively characterise the uncertainties of the bioassay data. Then, starting with three different published biokinetic models, the data are fit by varying intake and model perturbation parameters, e.g., parameters influencing the lung, thoracic lymph nodes, liver and bone retention. Statistical self-consistency arguments are used to check the measurement uncertainty parameters within the Poisson–lognormal model. The second part of the study is to set up and test Bayesian dose calculations, which use the point determinations of biokinetic parameters from the study cases within a discrete, empirical Bayes approximation. The main conclusion of the study is that these methods are now ready to be applied to the entire Mayak worker population.


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