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Radiation Protection Dosimetry Advance Access published online on August 8, 2008

Radiation Protection Dosimetry, doi:10.1093/rpd/ncn180
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© The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved
The online version of this article has been published under an open access model. Users are entitled to use, reproduce, disseminate, or display the open access version of this article for non-commercial purposes provided that: the original authorship is properly and fully attributed; the Journal and Oxford University Press are attributed as the original place of publication with the correct citation details given; if an article is subsequently reproduced or disseminated not in its entirety but only in part or as a derivative work this must be clearly indicated. For commercial re-use, please contact journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

VARIABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY OF BIOKINETIC MODEL PARAMETERS: THE DISCRETE EMPIRICAL BAYES APPROXIMATION

Guthrie Miller*

Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA

* Corresponding author: guthrie{at}lanl.gov

Received March 3, 2008, amended May 21, 2008, accepted June 10, 2008

In the Bayesian approach to internal dosimetry, uncertainty and variability of biokinetic model parameters need to be taken into account. The discrete empirical Bayes approximation replaces integration over biokinetic model parameters by discrete summation in the evaluation of Bayesian posterior averages using Bayes theorem. The discrete choices of parameters are taken as best-fit point determinations of model parameters for a study subpopulation with extensive data. A simple heuristic model is constructed to numerically and theoretically study this approximation. The heuristic example is the measurement of heights of a group of people, say from a photograph where measurement uncertainty is significant. A comparison is made of posterior mean and standard deviation of height after a measurement, (i) using the exact prior describing the distribution of true height in the population and (ii) using the approximate discrete empirical Bayes prior obtained from measurements of some study subpopulation.


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