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Radiation Protection Dosimetry Advance Access originally published online on April 16, 2008
Radiation Protection Dosimetry 2008 131(2):198-211; doi:10.1093/rpd/ncn131
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© The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved
The online version of this article has been published under an open access model. Users are entitled to use, reproduce, disseminate, or display the open access version of this article for non-commercial purposes provided that: the original authorship is properly and fully attributed; the Journal and Oxford University Press are attributed as the original place of publication with the correct citation details given; if an article is subsequently reproduced or disseminated not in its entirety but only in part or as a derivative work this must be clearly indicated. For commercial re-use, please contact journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

An empirical multivariate log-normal distribution representing uncertainty of biokinetic parameters for 137Cs

G. Miller1,*, D. Melo2, H. Martz1 and L. Bertelli1

1 Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
2 National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA

* Corresponding author: guthriemiller{at}gmail.com

Received January 14, 2008, amended March 11, 2008, accepted March 13, 2008

A simplified biokinetic model for 137Cs has six parameters representing transfer of material to and from various compartments. Using a Bayesian analysis, the joint probability distribution of these six parameters is determined empirically for two cases with quite a lot of bioassay data. The distribution is found to be a multivariate log-normal. Correlations between different parameters are obtained. The method utilises a fairly large number of pre-determined forward biokinetic calculations, whose results are stored in interpolation tables. Four different methods to sample the multidimensional parameter space with a limited number of samples are investigated: random, stratified, Latin Hypercube sampling with a uniform distribution of parameters and importance sampling using a lognormal distribution that approximates the posterior distribution. The importance sampling method gives much smaller sampling uncertainty. No sampling method-dependent differences are perceptible for the uniform distribution methods.


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G. Miller
Variability and uncertainty of biokinetic model parameters: the discrete empirical Bayes approximation
Radiat Prot Dosimetry, September 1, 2008; 131(3): 394 - 398.
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