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Radiation Protection Dosimetry Advance Access originally published online on December 21, 2006
Radiation Protection Dosimetry 2007 123(4):443-449; doi:10.1093/rpd/ncl525
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Marta Szluinska, Health Protection Agency. Crown Copyright 2006. Reproduced with the permission of the Controller of Her Majesty's Stationery office.

Presenting statistical uncertainty on cytogenetic dose estimates

Marta Szluinska, Alan Edwards and David Lloyd*

Health Protection Agency, Radiation Protection Division, Chilton, Didcot OX11 0RQ, UK

* Corresponding author: david.lloyd{at}hpa-rp.org.uk

Received September 29, 2006, accepted November 2, 2006


  Abstract

Cytogenetic dosimetry results are customarily accompanied by 95% confidence limits and the derivation of these limits is discussed. Simply presenting values of the best estimate of dose and 95% limits assumes that recipients of dosimetry reports, possibly the patients themselves, have a sufficient grasp of statistics to comprehend the concept of uncertainty. Two further methods have been developed to aid improved understanding for the lay person. The first method, particularly useful for suspected low doses, presents a simple odds ratio indicating that the results favour either zero dose or that suspected; for example, from an unexpected dose recorded on a badge. The second method, described fully here for the first time, uses a graphical illustration of a normalised distribution of dose so that one may visualise the area beneath a curve that represents the probability that the dose lies within various bounds.


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